EVALUATION OF THE EFFECTS OF CLIMATE CHANGES, GDP GROWTH AND COCOA YIELD AND PRICE ON SHEA NUT EXPORT IN GHANA

Abstract

The shea tree is found in the wild, it is therefore in no dought that the major factor that determines total actual yield is the weather, precisely the rainfall pattern. On the other hand, the total collected fruits are determined by both the weather and the financial position of the collector since most of them rely on it as a supplement to household income. Likewise, the total shea nuts produced is depends on the availability of sunshine for drying the nuts. Also shea butter is considered as substitute to cocoa butter, implying that its demand is most likely negatively tide to the price of cocoa. The effect of these factors was therefore evaluated on the export of shea nuts. The study showed that there is weak negative correlation for current year rainfall at the north, past year rainfall at the south and cocoa price (-0.10812, -0.23174 and -0.05151) respectively whiles past year rainfall at the north, real GDP percentage growth, cocoa price have weak positive correlation (0.07643, 0.31749, and 0.19056) respectively. The study also revealed that temperature has a stronger positive correlation (0.53055) with shea export. The study concluded that with an annual average temperature of 29°C and average annual rainfall in the northern part of Ghana (between 937 mm and 1136 mm) and dedicated attention given to the shea industry, it will contribute immensely to the GDP growth of Ghana.