NEGOCIOS Y POLÍTICA EN AMÉRICA LATINA: EL RIESGO POLÍTICO COMO FACTOR IMPONDERABLE PARA LOS INVERSIONISTAS

Abstract

In recent years, international business analysts and rating agencies have developed a wide array of strategies in order to measure investment risks in different countries. Under the concept of “Country Riskâ€, pundits believe they are able to foresee the possible problems investors will face when entering a specific market. The imperfect econometric particularities of “Country Risk†analysis have given life to “Political Risk†studies, which pretend, with a sociopolitical stance, to solve the inherent problems of more technical approaches. However, in the case of Latin-American economies, both strategies are of little help, no matter what assurances analysts and rating agencies offer to the public. Latin-American countries are unpredictable. In just a few months, even the best ranked country may become, by unforeseeable circumstances, the ruin of investors. Due to its particular characteristics, Latin-America is prone to major changes in any direction. A strong populist discourse has broad sympathies among the population. Thanks to relatively robust democratic institutions, a change in economic direction is around the corner in every single Latin-American scenario, without the need of a revolution. In this region of the world, “Country Risk†and “Political Risk†analysis are just a rhetorical illusion.